Mortgage Rates 2026: 3.4–4.3% & How to Get the Best Deal

Published: January 2026

After the dramatic rate drops of 2025, Dutch mortgage rates have stabilized in early 2026. The days of “rates are falling, buy now!” are over. In 2026, rates are expected to stay flat—possibly declining by a tiny 0.5%, but nothing dramatic. This shift changes your strategy completely. Instead of rushing to lock in rates, you should focus on finding the best rate from the best lender. Here’s how.

Current Mortgage Rates (January 2026): The Baseline

As of January 2026, here’s what you can actually get:

Rates by Fixed-Rate Period

Term	Rate Range	Best Case	Typical	Top Range
1–5 year variable	3.1–3.5%	3.1%	3.3%	3.5%
10-year fixed	3.4–4.3%	3.4%	3.6%	4.3%
20-year fixed	3.7–4.1%	3.7%	3.9%	4.1%
30-year fixed	3.8–4.3%	3.8%	4.0%	4.3%

Key observation: The 10-year fixed is the sweet spot for 2026. It offers the lowest rates without the risk of a variable rate.

Rates by Bank (January 2026)

Major banks are offering:

Bank	Product	Rate	Notes
ING	10-yr + NHG + Energy A	3.11%	Best rate available
ABN AMRO	Standard 10-yr	3.5–3.6%	+ 0.15% sustainability discount possible
Nationale Nederlanden	10-yr + NHG + Energy A	3.19%	Competitive alternative
Rabobank	Standard 10-yr	3.6–3.7%	Slightly higher than competitors

Bottom line: If you qualify for NHG (National Mortgage Guarantee) and have an energy-efficient home, you can get rates as low as 3.11%.

The 2026 Rate Forecast: Why Rates Are Flat

To understand why rates won’t drop significantly, you need to know how they’re set.

The ECB’s Role: The Rate Is Already at the Bottom

The European Central Bank (ECB) controls the deposit rate, which is the foundation for all mortgage rates.

2025 Timeline:

ECB deposit rate started at 3.25% (October 2024)
Fell to 2.5% (mid-2025)
Reached 2.0% (by September 2025)
Current level: 2.0% (late 2025/early 2026)

What experts say about 2026:

ECB likely to keep deposit rate at 2%
Inflation is at 2.4%, close to ECB’s 2% target
No urgency for further cuts
Only if inflation falls significantly below 2% would more cuts happen

Expert quote from OHAO: “The threshold for additional cuts is very high, and policy is likely to remain unchanged through 2026.”

Why Your Mortgage Rate Won’t Follow Rate Drops (If They Happen)

Even if the ECB cuts rates by another 0.25%, your mortgage rate might not drop by the same amount. Here’s why:

Risk premiums are rising slowly. Banks are adding a larger “safety margin” to their rates.
Government bond yields are stable. Long-term rates (which affect 10+ year mortgages) are tied to 10-year government bond yields, not just ECB rates.
Competition is easing. With fewer buyers rushing due to falling rates, banks aren’t cutting rates as aggressively.

Result: If ECB cuts by 0.25%, expect your mortgage rate to drop by only 0.1–0.15%.

The 2026 Consensus Forecast

Here’s what all major Dutch banks forecast for 2026:

ABN AMRO: Rates stay stable; long-term rates may rise slightly ING: Rates likely to remain close to current levels Rabobank: Rates may decline slightly (0.3–0.5%) Expert Mortgages: Rates expected to decline 0.5 percentage points across 2026

Conservative forecast: Flat to slight decline of 0.5% (taking rates from 3.4% to 3.0% at absolute best)

Why this matters: Don’t wait for rates to drop in 2026. They won’t drop enough to make waiting worthwhile.

The Comparison: 2025 vs. 2026 Rate Strategy

Strategy Element	2025	2026
Rate Trend	Falling (4.5% → 3.4%)	Stable (3.4% → 3.4%–3.9%)
Buyer Behavior	Rush before rates rise	Take time to find best deal
Best Strategy	Buy ASAP	Compare lenders carefully
Rate Lock	Urgent	Relaxed
Negotiation	Weak (rates falling)	Strong (rates stable)
Advisor Needed?	No (lock and go)	Yes (comparison pays)

Bottom line: 2026 is a buyer’s market in terms of rate shopping. Lenders aren’t dropping rates automatically, so comparison saves real money.

How Much Can You Save by Shopping Rates? Real Numbers

Let’s use a realistic example: €400,000 mortgage, 30-year fixed

Scenario 1: You Accept the First Rate (3.6%)

Monthly payment: €1,823 Annual cost: €21,876 Total cost over 30 years: €655,000 (includes €255,000 interest)

Scenario 2: You Shop and Get 3.4% (Best Case)

Monthly payment: €1,797 Annual cost: €21,564 Total cost over 30 years: €647,000 (includes €247,000 interest)

Savings: €26/month = €312/year = €9,360 over 30 years

Scenario 3: You Get 3.8% (Not Shopping)

Monthly payment: €1,849 Annual cost: €22,188 Total cost over 30 years: €663,000 (includes €263,000 interest)

vs. 3.4%: €16,000 more expensive over 30 years

This is why rate comparison matters in 2026.

The 5 Ways to Get the Lowest Mortgage Rates in 2026

1. Choose 10-Year Fixed (The Winner)

Why 10-year fixed?

Best rates: 3.4–3.6% (lowest available)
Stability: Rate locked for 10 years (predictable)
Flexibility: Refinance after 10 years if rates improve
No risk: Unlike 1–5 year variable rates (which could jump)

Comparison:

10-year fixed: 3.4–3.6%
20-year fixed: 3.7–4.1% (0.3–0.5% higher)
30-year fixed: 3.8–4.3% (0.4–0.7% higher)
5-year variable: 3.3% (tempting, but risky)

Bottom line: For 2026, 10-year fixed is the sweet spot. You get the lowest rate without the risk of a variable rate increasing after 5 years.

2. Qualify for NHG & Get 0.3–0.5% Discount

National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) is a government-backed guarantee that lets you borrow more safely. Banks reward this with lower rates.

NHG qualification (2026):

Maximum loan: €470,000 (or €498,200 with energy improvements)
Requires: Owner-occupant, first-time buyer (usually)
Benefit: 0.3–0.5% rate discount

Example: Without NHG, you get 3.6%. With NHG, you get 3.1–3.3%.

On a €350,000 mortgage:

Without NHG at 3.6%: €1,589/month
With NHG at 3.1%: €1,549/month
Savings: €40/month = €480/year = €14,400 over 30 years

Action: Check if you qualify for NHG. If yes, always use it.

3. Buy a Home with Energy Label A or B (0.15% Discount)

Sustainability discount: Banks including ABN AMRO, ING, and others offer 0.15% rate cuts if your home has:

Energy label A or B, OR
You upgrade to A/B within 24 months

How it works:

Buy home (or identify one with label A/B)
Bank automatically checks government energy registry
Rate reduced by 0.15% (no paperwork needed)
Discount applies throughout fixed-rate period

2026 advantage: Automatic verification—no need to prove the label yourself.

On a €400,000 mortgage at 3.5%:

Standard: 3.5% = €1,823/month
With energy discount: 3.35% = €1,803/month
Savings: €20/month = €240/year = €7,200 over 30 years

Bonus: Energy-efficient homes also save €1,000–€3,000/year in utilities, so the discount stacks on top of actual utility savings.

4. Tie Your Salary to Your Bank (0.20% Discount)

Salary account discount: ABN AMRO and ING offer 0.20% off if your salary is paid into their account.

ABN AMRO specifically: If salary + energy-efficient home, you get 0.35% total discount.

Example: 3.5% base rate

Salary discount: -0.20% = 3.3%
Energy discount: -0.15% = 3.15%
Total: 3.15% (0.35% off)

On €400,000:

3.5%: €1,823/month
3.15%: €1,801/month
Savings: €22/month = €264/year = €7,920 over 30 years

Action: If opening a bank account anyway, choose one offering mortgage discounts. Salary routing earns you discounts.

5. Use a Mortgage Broker/Adviser (0.2–0.5% Better Rates)

How it works: Mortgage advisers have access to 40+ lenders, not just the big 3 (ING, ABN AMRO, Rabobank).

Advisers can find:

Florius – Competitive rates
ASN Bank – Sustainable lending focus
Munt Hypotheken – Alternative options
Socio Hypotheek – Socially conscious lending
Smaller banks – Often beat major banks

Typical fee: €2,495–€5,000

Example ROI: Getting 0.25% lower rate on €400,000

Saves €1,000/year
Fee paid off in 2.5–5 years
Remaining 25–27.5 years = pure savings

2026 advantage: With rates stable, advisers have more negotiating power. Banks aren’t competing on rates alone, so advisers can get better terms, cashback, or fee reductions.

Fixed vs. Variable Rates: The 2026 Decision

10-Year Fixed (Recommended for 2026)

Rate: 3.4–3.6%
Risk: None (rate locked)
Upside: Predictable payments
Downside: Can’t benefit if rates drop below contract
Best for: Most people (security > savings)

30-Year Fixed (Maximum Security)

Rate: 3.8–4.3%
Risk: None (rate locked longest)
Upside: Locked in through entire repayment
Downside: 0.4–0.7% more expensive than 10-year
Best for: Families wanting zero uncertainty

5-Year Variable (Risky, Not Recommended 2026)

Rate: 3.3% (slightly lower)
Risk: HIGH (rate resets every 5 years)
Upside: Temptingly low current rate
Downside: Could jump to 4.5%+ in 5 years
Best for: Risk-tolerant investors only

Bottom line for 2026: Choose 10-year fixed. Rates won’t drop enough to justify variable rate risk.

Energy Label Impact: How Much Extra Can You Borrow?

Your home’s energy label affects how much you can borrow. Here’s 2026’s breakdown:

Additional Borrowing by Energy Label (2026)

Energy Label	Additional Capacity	Change from 2025	Why?
A++++ (with 10-yr warranty)	€40,000	-€10,000	Solar panel policy change
A++++	€30,000	-€10,000	Solar panel policy change
A+++	€25,000	-€5,000	Solar panel policy change
A++	€0	No change	Standard
E, F, G	€20,000	No change	Unchanged (renovation incentive)

Why the reductions? The government ended net-metering solar subsidies. Solar panels no longer generate money, so super-efficient homes lose that advantage.

Impact example:

2025: A+++ home → €40,000 extra borrowing
2026: A+++ home → €30,000 extra borrowing
Loss: €10,000 borrowing capacity

Offset: Higher wage growth (4.1%) and higher NHG limits (€470,000) partially make up the difference.

2026 Tax & Regulatory Changes Affecting Rates

NHG Limit Rises: More People Qualify

2025 limit: €450,000 2026 limit: €470,000 (+ €498,200 with energy improvements)

Impact: 20,000+ more buyers now qualify for NHG + rate discount

Action: Even if you didn’t qualify in 2025, you might now.

First-Time Buyer Transfer Tax Exemption Rises

2025 exemption: €525,000 2026 exemption: €555,000

Impact: €30,000 cheaper homes for first-time buyers under 35

On a €550,000 home:

2025: Pay transfer tax
2026: Exempt (saves €5,500 at 10% rate)

Timeline: When to Lock in Rates in 2026

Scenario 1: Buying Soon (January–March)

Action: Lock rates NOW

Rates at bottom
No waiting necessary
Long processing times mean rate-lock expires if delayed

Scenario 2: Buying Mid-Year (April–June)

Action: Apply for mortgage 30 days before closing

Rates won’t change meaningfully
No advantage to early locking
Avoid rate-lock expiration (usually 120 days)

Scenario 3: Buying Late Year (July–December)

Action: Apply 6–8 weeks before closing

If ECB cuts (unlikely), you’ll still benefit from 30-day window
If rates rise (possible), you’re protected during offer phase

Bottom line: Don’t lock rates months in advance in 2026. Rates won’t improve enough to make it worthwhile. Lock 4–6 weeks before closing.

Real Bank Recommendations for 2026

Best Overall: ING

Rate: Lowest available (3.1–3.6%)
Advantage: 170+ branches, English support, salary discount
Fee: €3.55–€4.00/month
Why 2026: Strong rate competition

Best for Sustainability: ABN AMRO

Rate: Competitive (3.5–3.6%)
Advantage: 0.15% sustainability discount + salary discount = 0.35% possible
Fee: €4.30/month (highest)
Expat advantage: 90-day BSN grace period (important if just arrived)
Why 2026: Energy discounts matter more with stable rates

Best Value: bunq (Digital Bank)

Rate: Access to same lenders as others via advisers
Advantage: €0/month + 2.01% savings interest
Fee: €0 (saves €51.60/year vs ABN AMRO)
English: Yes
Why 2026: Lower banking costs free up money for mortgage

Best for Comparison: Use a Mortgage Adviser

Advantage: Access to 40+ lenders
Fee: €2,495–€5,000
Break-even: 2–5 years on rate savings
Why 2026: Stable rates mean advisers can negotiate better terms

What You Should Do Right Now (January 2026)

If You’re Buying in 2026:

Don’t wait for rates to drop – They won’t. Commit to buying timeline.
Get pre-approval – Lock your rate power (interest-rate sensitivity matters)
Choose 10-year fixed – Best rate/risk ratio in 2026
Qualify for NHG – Worth 0.3–0.5% discount if eligible
Look for energy label A/B homes – Worth 0.15% discount + utility savings
Compare banks and advisers – 0.2–0.5% difference = €9,000–€15,000 lifetime
Don’t lock rates too early – Wait 4–6 weeks before closing

If You’re Deciding Whether to Buy:

2026 is better than 2025 for buying because:

✅ No more rate-drop rush (time to find right home)
✅ Less bidding war pressure
✅ NHG limits increased
✅ First-buyer tax exemption increased
✅ Energy discounts automated

2026 is worse than 2025 because:

❌ Prices rising 4–5% (vs 8% in 2025)
❌ Wages growing slower
❌ Interest rates at bottom (no savings expected)

Net verdict: 2026 is a BETTER buyer’s market overall.

The Bottom Line

In 2026, mortgage rates are stable at 3.4–4.3% with no major drops expected. This changes your strategy from “buy ASAP” to “shop carefully.”

The difference between the worst rate (4.3%) and the best rate (3.1%) is €12/month on a €400,000 mortgage—which compounds to €9,000–€15,000 over 30 years. Mortgage shopping is no longer optional; it’s essential.

Your action plan:

Choose 10-year fixed
Qualify for NHG
Target energy label A/B homes
Compare at least 3 banks or use an adviser
Lock rates 4–6 weeks before closing

Do this, and you’ll save €9,000–€15,000 compared to taking the first rate offered.

Key Sources & References

OHAO Interest Rates 2026 Forecast
ABN AMRO Mortgage Changes 2026
ING Current Mortgage Rates
DutchNews Housing Update Dec 2025
European Insurance Mortgage Market 2025
Expat in Holland Rate Comparisons
NLCompass Bank Comparison 2026
De Financiële Alliantie Mortgage Rules 2026
Renewable Partners Energy Label Discounts

Data as of January 2026. Rates subject to change. Consult a mortgage adviser for personal advice.