Dutch Housing Market 2026: 4–5% Price Growth Forecast & What It Means for You

Published: January 2026

After years of explosive growth, the Dutch housing market is entering a new phase in 2026. Prices will keep rising, but much slower than in 2025. Instead of the 8–9% jumps we saw last year, expect moderate 4–5% growth. This shift isn’t a crash—it’s the market normalizing. Here’s what the data tells us and what it means for your housing decisions this year.

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The Big Picture: Why the Slowdown?

To understand 2026’s forecast, you need to know why 2025 was so explosive.

2025: The Exceptional Year

In 2025, Dutch house prices rose by 6.5–8.7% depending on which bank you ask. This continued a trend from 2024, when prices jumped 8.7%. The reasons were:

1. Falling mortgage rates (from 4.5% to 3.4–3.8%) - Read more about mortgage rates
2. Rising household incomes (wages up 4%+)
3. Extreme housing shortage (400,000 homes missing)
4. Investors selling rental properties (200,000+ homes listed due to new tax rules)

All these factors created a perfect storm of demand and limited supply. People could borrow more cheaply, earned more, and found few options. Result: prices shot up.

2026: The Normalization Year

In 2026, three of those four factors weaken significantly:

1. Wage Growth Slows

Incomes won’t rise as fast in 2026. This is the critical factor. When people earn less extra money, they can borrow less. Lower borrowing power = lower prices.

2. Mortgage Rates Stabilize (No Further Drops)

The European Central Bank has cut rates aggressively. That cushion is over. Most experts now think mortgage rates have hit bottom and will stay flat or rise slightly in 2026. This removes the “rates are falling, so buy now” urgency that drove 2025.

3. Investor Sell-Off Wave Ends

In 2025, landlords and property investors sold an estimated 200,000+ properties because renting became less profitable. This flooded the market with supply. By early 2026, this wave is expected to stabilize. Fewer homes for sale = less downward pressure on prices, but also less buying urgency.

Result: The perfect storm becomes a typical market. Prices still rise—but slowly.

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The 2026 Forecast: Numbers from the Major Banks

All major Dutch banks agree: prices will keep rising in 2026, but at 4–5% instead of 8–9%.

Bank-by-Bank Breakdown

Bank	2025 Growth	2026 Growth	Notes
ABN AMRO	8.7%	3%	Most conservative; cites slower wage growth
Rabobank	8.6%	5.5–5.7%	More optimistic; sees persistent demand
ING	~7%	4%	Moderate view; expects stabilization
DNB (Central Bank)	~7.5%	4%	Official forecast; cites affordability squeeze
Consensus	~8%	4–5%	Middle ground: steady but slower growth

What These Percentages Mean in Practice

Let’s say you’re looking at a €400,000 home:

Year	Price (4% growth)	Price (5% growth)
Early 2026	€400,000	€400,000
Mid 2026	€408,000	€410,000
End 2026	€416,000	€420,000

Compare this to 2025: that same house would have jumped €32,000–€36,000 in one year. In 2026, expect €16,000–€20,000.

Why this matters: Slower growth means:

• ✅ Better negotiating power for buyers (fewer bidding wars)
• ✅ More time to save for a down payment
• ❌ Less wealth-building for current homeowners
• ❌ Less attractive for short-term investors

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The Hidden Story: Regional Differences

The national average of “4–5%” hides huge regional variation. Some areas are booming. Others are cooling. Understanding this is crucial for 2026.

The Winners: Where Prices Are Still Rising Fastest

Utrecht Region: The Hottest Market

Utrecht is the standout winner of the Dutch housing market. Browse homes in Utrecht to see current availability.

2025 Performance:

• Province of Utrecht: +14.4%
• City of Utrecht: +18.4% (!)

Why? Population flowing OUT of expensive Amsterdam into cheaper Utrecht. Younger professionals, families, expats—all moving to Utrecht because you get more space for less money.

2026 Forecast: ABN AMRO and Rabobank both expect Utrecht to see among the highest growth rates nationally (7%+).

What this means for you:

• If buying in Utrecht: expect competition (still hot market)
• If selling from Utrecht: good time to sell
• Alternative: Consider suburbs of Utrecht instead of city center

Provincial Areas Outside Randstad: The Sleeper Growth Markets

Outside the major cities, something unexpected is happening: cheaper regions are seeing faster price growth than Amsterdam.

2-Year Growth (2023–2025):

• Groningen: +23% (View Groningen housing market)
• Overijssel: +22%
• Drenthe: +20%

Why? Remote work, better affordability, and people seeking escape from Amsterdam housing prices.

2026 Forecast: Rabobank expects “price growth to shift to northern regions” and Flevoland.

Price Comparison (2025 data):

• Zuid-Holland (Amsterdam region): €366,814 average mortgage
• Groningen (far north): €283,271 average mortgage
• Difference: €83,543 (23% cheaper!)

What this means for you:

• If you can work remotely, consider Groningen/Drenthe
• Better value = faster wealth-building
• Less competition = better negotiating power
• But: lower resale demand, longer selling times

Flevoland: The Quiet Riser

Flevoland (the polder province between Amsterdam and Utrecht) is expected to see among the highest growth in 2026 because it’s close to Amsterdam but more affordable.

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The Slowdowners: Where Growth Is Cooling

The Big Four cities (Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague, Utrecht) are all experiencing or about to experience slower growth in 2026.

Amsterdam: From Hero to Cooling

2025 Performance:

• House prices: +10.1%
• But: growth was already slowing mid-year

2026 Forecast: Prices will rise, but “less rapidly” than in other regions.

Why the cooldown?

1. Already expensive (€400,000+ median)
2. Lots of empty homes (21,770 standing vacant)
3. Investor sell-off focused on Amsterdam
4. Less room for wage-driven growth

What this means for you:

• ✅ Better buyer’s market (less competition)
• ❌ Not a wealth-building investment anymore
• ✅ Good time to buy (less bidding war pressure)
• ❌ Bad time to sell

Rotterdam & The Hague: Moderate Cooling

2025 Growth:

• Rotterdam: +8.9%
• The Hague: Mixed performance

2026 Forecast: Slower growth expected, but still positive.

Why? High prices + less investor activity = cooling.

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Mortgage Rates in 2026: What to Expect

Good news: mortgage rates are unlikely to spike in 2026.

Current Rates (Jan 2026)

Term	Rate Range	Notes
10-year fixed	3.4–3.6%	Most attractive
20-year fixed	3.7–4.1%	Good for long-term stability
30-year fixed	3.8–4.3%	Higher premium for longest security
Variable / 1–5 year	~3.4%	Risky; rates could rise in 5 years

2026 Outlook

The consensus: Rates will stay roughly flat or decline slightly by 0.5 percentage points.

Why?

• European Central Bank deposit rate expected to stay at 2%
• Inflation slowly falling toward 2% target
• No major rate shocks expected

Bottom line: If you’re buying in 2026, don’t expect interest rate drops to boost your buying power. Budget conservatively.

What Changed From 2025?

In 2025, mortgage rates fell from 3.8% → 3.4% during the year. That 0.4% drop meant thousands of euros cheaper mortgages. Don’t expect that in 2026.

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Transactions & Supply in 2026

How Many Homes Will Sell?

2025: ~200,000+ homes sold (near-record) 2026 Forecast: 223,000–233,000 homes

This sounds like more, but growth is expected to be only 1%. The exceptional volume of 2025 (driven by investors selling) is normalizing.

Why the Slowdown?

The big investor sell-off wave is over. By early 2026, most landlords who wanted to exit have already sold. After that, transaction volume returns to “normal” levels.

What this means for you:

• Slightly less choice in properties for sale
• But less competition among buyers too
• Net effect: roughly balanced

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Who Benefits Most in 2026?

✅ First-Time Buyers (Best Year Since 2024)

Why 2026 is good for you:

1. Higher exemptions: Transfer tax exemption rises to €555,000 (from €525,000)
2. NHG limits rising: Maximum NHG coverage goes to €470,000 (from €450,000)
3. Slower prices: Less aggressive bidding wars
4. Stable rates: Rates not climbing, so affordability improves

Action: 2026 is a buyer’s market for first-time purchasers. Less competition, better terms, government support increasing.

✅ Expats Planning to Buy

Why 2026 works:

• Mortgage rates stable (no rush)
• NHG threshold rising (more become eligible)
• Slower market (less pressure, better negotiation)
• bunq/fintechs easier (no BSN required for some checks)

Action: If you’ve been waiting to buy, 2026 is less frantic than 2025.

❌ Current Homeowners (Lower Wealth Growth)

Why 2026 is tougher:

• Your home’s value grows slower
• Refinancing rates aren’t dropping (unlike 2024–2025)
• Less equity buildup to pull from

Action: Don’t sell to move “up.” Hold longer, or focus on enjoyment rather than investment.

⚠️ Property Investors (Time to Recalculate)

Why 2026 is challenging:

• Slower price growth = lower capital appreciation
• Rents rising 4–6% (still decent) but slower than prices
• Supply still tight (good for landlords, but fewer homes to buy)

Action: Investors need better fundamentals than just price growth. Focus on rental yields, not capital appreciation.

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The Big Picture: 2026 vs 2025

Factor	2025	2026
Price Growth	8–9%	4–5%
Wage Growth	High	Slowing
Mortgage Rates	Falling	Stable
Investor Activity	High (selling)	Normalizing
Buyer Competition	Intense	Moderate
Best for Buyers?	No (bidding wars)	Yes (more time)
Best for Sellers?	Yes (fast sales)	Maybe (slower deals)

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What Should You Do Right Now?

If You’re Buying in 2026

1. Get pre-approved for a mortgage – With rates stable, lock in terms before they move
2. Expand your search region – Utrecht and provincial areas have more upside
3. Negotiate harder – Slower market = more room to negotiate price
4. Don’t assume rates will drop – Budget for current rates (3.4–4.3%)

If You’re Selling in 2026

1. Price realistically – 4–5% growth is healthy; don’t expect 8% bidding wars
2. Stage well – With more time, presentation matters more
3. Consider regional variations – Selling in Amsterdam? Expect slower deals. Selling in Utrecht? Still hot.

If You’re Deciding Whether to Buy or Rent

1. Buying makes sense if:

   • You’re staying 5+ years (not trading quickly)
   • You can afford current rates without stretching (Check hidden buying costs)
   • You want stability (not betting on appreciation)

2. Renting makes sense if:

   • You want flexibility
   • You’re uncertain about location - try renting in Amsterdam or Rotterdam first

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The Bottom Line

2026 is not a crash year. It’s a transition year. After the explosive 2024–2025 period, the market is cooling to a more sustainable 4–5% annual growth. This is healthy. It gives first-time buyers breathing room, removes bidding-war pressure, and restores some sanity to pricing.

The regional twist: If you’re flexible on location, northern provinces (Groningen, Drenthe, Overijssel) and the Utrecht region offer better value and stronger growth. Amsterdam and major cities are cooling.

For most people: 2026 is actually a better year to buy than 2025 was. Less frenzy. Better terms. More negotiating power. Take advantage.

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Key Sources & References

• ABN AMRO Housing Market Monitor (Q3 2025)
• Rabobank Housing Market Report (Q3 2025)
• ING Housing Forecast (2026)
• De Nederlandsche Bank Central Bank Forecast
• CBS (Statistics Netherlands) Housing Data
• OHAO Mortgage Interest Rate Analysis 2026
• DutchNews Housing Coverage (Dec 2025–Jan 2026)

Data as of January 2026. Market conditions can change. Consult a mortgage advisor for personal advice.